August 9 Statewide Primary Roundup
On Tuesday, August 9, Wisconsin voters headed to the polls to participate in the 2022 Partisan Primary election. Along with several statewide races, local legislative primaries were also on the ballot, shaping the future makeup of the state legislature. Below are highlights from the August 9 election results.
Governor
Tim Michels (R) will take on Governor Tony Evers (D) in November. Michels claimed 47.2% of the votes, compared to 42% for former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Kleefisch conceded around 10:30pm and asked supporters to back Michels.
Last year, Kleefisch was presumed by many to be the Republican nominee for Governor. Michels entered the race late, and was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Michels seized momentum in the race and ultimately outperformed Kleefisch to seal the nomination.
Turning toward the November election, recent polls favor Governor Evers. A Marquette Law School Poll put Evers at 48 percent to 41 percent over Michels, but very little money has been spent against the first-term incumbent governor. The same polls show Republican voters are more enthusiastic about voting in November, and President Biden’s low approval will be a drag on Governor Evers. Evers eked out his first election, taking 49.54% of the vote in 2018, beating Scott Walker by about 30,000 votes in a very good environment for Democrats. Expect a tough and expensive race heading into November.
Attorney General
Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney (R) won a close election over former State Representative Adam Jarchow, 37.5 percent to 36.9 percent. Karen Mueller finished third with 25.6% of the vote.
Toney now takes on Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) in November. Attorney General Kaul took 49.41% of the vote in 2018, beating Brad Schimel by about 20,000 votes.
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R) will face Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D) this fall, after Barnes easily won a once-packed Democratic primary. In the weeks leading up to the August 9 primary, other top contenders int he Democratic primary announced they were no longer seeking the Democratic nomination, throwing their support to Barnes.
Polls show a tight race between Barnes and Johnson, despite Johnson’s consistent low favorability. A June Marquette Law School Poll showed Barnes only two points ahead of Johnson – Barnes at 46 percent and U.S. Senator Johnson at 44 percent.
Lieutenant Governor
Republican Roger Roth took 30.7% of the vote in a crowded Republican primary. Roth, a current State Senator from the Fox Valley, is expected to be a good addition to the Republican ticket given his military credentials, strong name ID in a key part of the state, and a track record of working hard and raising money. Roth’s top primary opponent was fellow State Senator Patrick Testin. Testin will remain in the Legislature, where he chairs the Senate Committee on Health.
Sara Rodriguez cruised to a victory in the Democratic primary, taking 76.4% of the vote. Rodriguez, a freshman member of the State Assembly and a nurse from SE Wisconsin, is a relative newcomer to Dem politics so her value to the Democratic ticket is yet to be seen, but her credentials include taking out a Republican incumbent in a traditionally conservative-leaning Milwaukee suburb in 2020.
Congressional
7 of the 8 Congressional District primaries in Wisconsin were uneventful. The one exception is the 3rd Congressional District, currently served by long-time Democratic Congressman Ron Kind, who is retiring.
Brad Pfaff (D) won the Democratic primary and will take on Derrick Van Orden (R) in the race to replace Kind. Pfaff took 40.5% of the vote in a 4-way Democratic primary. Van Orden, a military veteran, ran unopposed despite some baggage – reports that he participated in the January 6th insurrection, and a report of Van Orden shouting at a teenage library staff member for displaying materials for Pride Month. Pfaff, a long-time aide for Kind and current State Senator is known well in the district and a moderate Democrat, so many consider him a good fit for what will likely be a competitive race.
Legislative
Every two years, the State Legislature sees a fair amount of turnover due to retirements of sitting legislators, and this year is no exception. Many open-seat primaries were contested.
63rd Assembly District
However, the most prominent legislative primary featured a challenge to current Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. It is not often that a state legislative race receives national attention, but the Speaker’s primary fell under the national spotlight due to the involvement of former President Donald Trump.
Despite Vos authorizing a review of the 2020 election in Wisconsin by former Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman, Trump grew angry at Vos for what he perceived as “inaction” to overturn the 2020 election (a move that Vos, along with election law experts, have noted is not possible and is unconstitutional).
Trump deemed Vos a “RINO”, or Republican in Name Only, and endorsed Vos’s challenger, Adam Steen. Despite Trump’s criticism of Vos, the Speaker did edge out Steen to remain in office. However, the race was much closer than pundits had anticipated, with Vos winning 51.3% to Steen’s 48.7%.
And in a bizarre twist Michael Gableman, who is still being paid to review the 2020 election under an agreement with Vos, endorsed the Speaker’s opponent even recording robocalls and being a guest at the Trump rally.
After his win, Vos was very critical of Gableman, calling him an embarrassment to the state. Political observers expect Vos to fire Gableman, ending the election probe.
State Senate
The open 5th Senate District is expected to be the most competitive senate race this fall. Democratic voters selected Jessica Katzenmeyer who defeated Tom Palzewicz in Tuesday’s primary. While stae Democrats were hesitant to get involved in the primary many were quietly behind Palzewicz, viewing him the stronger candidate to take on former State Representative Rob Hutton, who lost his Assembly seat just two years ago and is the Republican candidate in the 5th SD.
The open 19th Senate District, currently held by newly-minted Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Roger Roth, could be competitive in the Fox Valley depending on the tone current Representative Rachael Cabral-Guevara takes heading into November. Backed by Americans for Prosperity Cabral-Guevara cruised to victory in the Republican primary with 63.6 percent of the vote. Some think there could be an opening for Democrats in this Fox Valley seat if Cabral-Guevara takes a more conservative path, although she is a fierce campaigner and the seat is still a considered a Republican seat even after redistricting.
In the open 23rd Senate District currently held by retiring Senator Kathy Bernier (R), State Representative Jesse James won a three-way GOP primary. Brian Westrate came in a distant second even though he raised more money and had the backing of former Governor Scott Walker. James is heavily favored to keep the seat in Republican hands this November.
In the open 29th Senate District, Cory Tomczyk won with 43.2% of the vote in another three-way GOP primary in the Wausau area. The 29th Senate District, currently held by retiring Senator Jerry Petrowski, is another heavily Republican seat, and Tomczyk is expected to easily win in November.